Updates: Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin believed dead after jet crash

The likely death of Prigozhin has opened questions about the future of the Wagner Group.

Former US Assistant Secretary of State PJ Crowley told Al Jazeera that while Putin is at the centre of speculation about the crash, some factions within the mercenary group had expressed ambivalence about Prigozhin’s leadership.

“There were elements within Wagner Group that were disappointed that Prigozhin started the march and then called it off,” said Crowley. “These are vast assets. One would assume that Putin is trying to regain control of the Wagner Group, but it’s a far-flung organisation with some capability, and everyone will be watching to see if they go rogue. “

The model of the Embraer executive jet that was reportedly carrying Prigozhin had a positive safety record, with only one accident recorded in more than 20 years, according to the news outlet Reuters.

Citing the website International Aviation HQ, the news outlet reported that the only previous incident took place in 2006 and was linked to mistakes by aircraft crew, rather than a technical failure. Reuters also said that Embraer, a Brazilian aerospace firm, declined to comment on Wednesday’s crash.

The historically sound performance of the jet is likely to fuel speculation that the crash was a result of foul play, given Prigozhin’s role in a botched mutiny against the Russian defence ministry in June.

Authorities are waiting to see what effect Prigozhin’s apparent death could have on the battlefield in Ukraine, where the Wagner mercenary group plays an important role in Russia’s war effort.

Al Jazeera’s Rob McBride said there is “very little love lost” for Prigozhin in Kyiv, and many suspect that Russian President Vladimir Putin is behind today’s plane crash. Ukraine is also considering what the incident could mean for Russian politics.

“There’s also an intense interest here in just what this might possibly mean on the wider picture inside of Russia,” said McBride. “Again, he has been the cause of all kinds of upheaval, of turmoil in the Russian military system. Could this once again mean that we’re going to see a period of upheaval? People here are following that closely.”

Russian investigators are looking into several possible explanations for the downing of Prigozhin’s plane, as rumours buzz about the death of the former Wagner boss.

“Investigators are looking at multiple theories of how this plane came down, including everything from pilot error to technical malfunction,” Al Jazeera’s Daniel Hawkins said from Moscow.

“They initially opened a case into breaches of aviation rules. They are, though, open to other theories now as well: possible explosions onboard, possible outside force, whatever that could mean. They are keeping an open mind as to what exactly caused this crash. Was this an accident, or not?”

Al Jazeera senior political analyst Marwan Bishara said that Prigozhin’s Wagner Group has played a violent and destabilising role in Middle Eastern and African countries where it has been active, such as Syria, Libya, and Sudan.

“It’s been a horror show. Its role has been, in that sense, totally counterproductive for the interests of those countries,” he said, that the group has forged connections with figures such as Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Khalifa Haftar in Libya.

“Wagner itself was benefitting from the likes of Libya — Sudan as well — by financing its own operations from gold mines and other ways,” said Bishara.

Here is how the world reacted to the crash and the reported death of Prigozhin.

Life of Wagner Group mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin – in pictures. More here.

A report from Russia state agency RIA Novosti has said that Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the plane that crashed earlier today, killing 10 people.

“According to the Russian aviation authorities, they are confirming that Yevgeny Prigozhin was on board that plane. That’s just come through from Russian media sources,” Al Jazeera’s Daniel Hawkins said, reporting from Moscow.

A Telegram channel associated with the Wagner Group has said that its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has died, Reuters reports.

“The head of the Wagner Group, a Hero of Russia, a true patriot of his Motherland – Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin died as a result of the actions of traitors to Russia,” a post in the Grey Zone channel said.

“But even in Hell, he will be the best! Glory to Russia!”

Prigozhin was listed as a passenger on a private jet that crashed on Wednesday evening north of Moscow with no survivors, Russian authorities said.

US President Joe Biden has commented on the plane crash involving Prigozhin, saying that he is “not surprised” by reports.

Biden spoke to jounralists about the reported plane crash as he was leaving a workout class while on vacation in Lake Tahoe, Bloomberg News reported.

“I don’t know for fact what happened, but I am not surprised,” Biden said, Bloomberg News reported.

“There’s not much that happens in Russia that Putin is not behind, but I don’t know enough to know the answer. I’ve been working out for the last hour and a half," Biden added, per @gardnerakayla

— Jordan Fabian (@Jordanfabian) August 23, 2023

US national security spokesperson Adrienne Watson confirmed that US officials have seen the reports of the Russian jet crash.

“We have seen the reports. If confirmed, no one should be surprised.”

Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was listed as a passenger on a private jet that crashed on Wednesday evening north of Moscow with no survivors, the Russian authorities said.

Reaction from Ukraine is beginning to trickle down, and observers say there is no love lost there for Prigozhin and his Wagner group.

“His fighters have been seen as some of the more effective parts of the Russian military credited with taking the city of Bakhmut … in these meat grinder operations, which have not only led to the deaths of waves of Wagner fighters but, of course, of Ukrainians trying to defend and hold on to Bakhmut,” said Al Jazeera’s Rob McBride, reporting from Kyiv.

“As far as Ukrainian authorities are concerned Wagner has ceased to be a threat in Ukraine itself although, of course, Wagner does exist in Belarus. There is still the concern that maybe they could do such things along the border, the northern border of Ukraine with Belarus. And of course, the Wagner soldiers as we know, are active throughout the continent of Africa,” he said.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on X, formerly Twitter, following reports of the Russian plane crash, saying, “Regarding Prigozhin: we have to wait for the fog of war to clear.”

“However, it is clear that Putin does not forgive anyone for his own beastly fear – the very one that nullified him in June 2023 – and was waiting for the moment.

“It is also obvious that Prigozhin signed a special death sentence for himself the moment he believed in the strange ‘guarantees of Lukashenko’ and in the no less absurd ‘honest word’ of Putin,” Podolyak wrote, referring to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

About Prigozhin: It is worth waiting for the fog of war to disappear… Meanwhile, it is obvious that Putin does not forgive anyone for his own bestial terror. Exactly the one that nullified him in June 2023. And he was waiting for the moment. It is also obvious that Prigozhin…

— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) August 23, 2023

US President Joe Biden has been briefed about the crash of a private jet in Russia on Wednesday, the White House has said. Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was listed as a passenger on the plane.

Eight bodies were found at the crash site of a private jet on which Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was listed as a passenger, Russian state news agency RIA reports, citing the emergency services.

According to the agency on Wednesday, search and rescue operations at the crash site are continuing.

There was no confirmation that Prigozhin was on board the plane that crashed north of Moscow, although Russia’s aviation agency said he was on the passenger list.

Earlier, Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations said in a statement that 10 people had been on board the private Embraer Legacy aircraft, travelling from Moscow to St Petersburg.

Experts are still being cautious about whether Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the plane that crashed, which listed him as a passenger. But some say regardless of the outcome, Prigozhin has been a marked man.

“We don’t know all the details yet, but if it turns out that it is what it seems to be, which is his plane going down, it’s absolutely no coincidence,” said Colin Clarke of the Soufan Group, speaking to Al Jazeera from Pittsburgh in the United States.

“Ever since the mutiny in late June, in which he embarrassed [Russian President] Vladimir Putin, he’s been a marked man. Many were surprised it [his killing] didn’t happen instantly, but this is something that everybody thought was inevitable.”

Ukrainian forces have raised the national flag in the settlement of Robotyne in the southern Zaporizhia region, Kyiv’s military has said, though it was not clear whether the entire community had been liberated from Russian forces.

“A historic day! Soldiers of the 47th Separate Mechanised Brigade set up the flag of Ukraine in the village of Robotyne, in one of the hottest destinations – Melitopol,” the brigade said in a post on its Telegram channel on Wednesday.

In a video published by General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, the Ukrainian flag is seen on the roof of a badly damaged building surrounded by burned trees.

“A blue and yellow flag signed by the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was raised on the school destroyed by the Russian invaders on the National Flag Day!” the 47th brigade said.

Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was listed as a passenger on a private jet which crashed north of Moscow on Wednesday, Russia’s state-owned TASS news agency has reported, citing Rosaviatsia, Russia’s aviation authority.

“An investigation has been launched into the Embraer plane crash that occurred tonight in the Tver region. According to the passenger list, among them is the name and surname of Yevgeny Prigozhin,” Rosaviatsia said.

Earlier TASS had reported that 10 people had died after a private jet crashed in Russia’s Tver region north of Moscow. The jet, en route from Moscow to St Petersburg, was carrying seven passengers and three crew.

Prigozhin, whose private military force Wagner fought alongside Russia’s regular army in Ukraine, mounted a short-lived armed mutiny against Russia’s military leadership in late June. The Kremlin said he would be exiled to Belarus, and his fighters would either retire, follow him there, or join the Russian military.

News wires citing Russian media, including TASS, have claimed that the business jet in Russia that crashed, killing 10 people, may have included Yevgeny Prigozhin on the passenger list.